Trump’s flip-flop on how easy it would be to end the Russia-Ukraine war

Trump’s flip-flop on how easy it would be to end the Russia-Ukraine war The president has gone from a “24-hour” deal to “back away” in just a few months May 22, 2025 at 6:00 a.m. EDTToday at 6:00 a.m. EDT 15 min

President Donald Trump meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office on Feb 28. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post) Analysis by Glenn Kessler “Before I even arrive at the Oval Office, shortly after we all together win the presidency, we will have the horrible war between Russia and Ukraine settled. It will be settled. The war is going to be settled. I’ll get them both. I know Zelensky, I know Putin. It’ll be done within 24 hours, you watch.” — Donald Trump, remarks at a campaign rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, July 29, 2023 “Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War. The conditions for that will be negotiated between the two parties, as it can only be, because they know details of a negotiation that nobody else would be aware of.” — President Trump, in a social media post, May 19 Over and over during the presidential campaign, Trump pledged to end the three-year war between Russia and Ukraine — which began when Russia invaded its neighbor. He made it seem easy — “within 24 hours” — and repeated that claim in campaign rally after campaign rally. As shown above, he sometimes suggested he could cut a deal before he even took the oath of office, citing the relations he forged with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin during his first term. Then, in March, Trump claimed he was being “a little bit sarcastic” when he said he could end the war in only 24 hours. This “sarcastic” phrasing is often Trump’s refuge when a comment begins to backfire on him. That was his excuse when he said he wanted to be dictator for at least the first day of his presidency. And also when, during the 2016 campaign, he urged Russia to find alleged missing emails from Hillary Clinton: “Russia, if you’re listening, I hope you’re able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing.” ✅ Following Fact-checking politicians Following Those were, indeed, one-off statements and perhaps one could believe they were sarcastic. It’s hard to take seriously that a line repeated in many campaign rallies was sarcastic. It sounded more like a promise — or certainly an objective. The Biden administration viewed Russia’s invasion as a violation of previous agreements, forged after the collapse of the Soviet Union, to respect Ukraine’s borders. The United States and its allies imposed heavy sanctions on Russia and shoveled enough military and economic support to Ukraine to help it fend off the attack — when most experts expected it to quickly collapse. President Joe Biden’s approach was a form of coercive diplomacy — to force the Russians to the negotiating table by demonstrating it could not win. Talks to end the conflict would only begin, officials said, once Russia demonstrated it would engage in substantive negotiations. But the war dragged on, with neither side showing signs of relenting despite a devastating death toll. With his 24-hour comment, Trump suggested the war was pointless, with too many people dying, and that it could quickly be settled if the two sides were brought to the negotiating table with no preconditions. Trump has often admired Putin, falsely believing that the Russian leader called him “a genius.” Trump has returned the favor. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Trump said Putin’s decision to declare certain breakaway regions in Ukraine as independent to be “genius” and “very savvy.” But it hasn’t been as easy as Trump predicted. Here’s a review of his statements on negotiations since he became president. While he sometimes expressed frustration with Russia, the president put much more pressure on Ukraine to make concessions while dangling the possibility of sanctions relief on Russia. Now he appears to have washed his hands of the issue, leaving it to the parties to settle it themselves. Jan. 22 “I’m going to do Russia, whose Economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR. Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE. If we don’t make a ‘deal,’ and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries. Let’s get this war, which never would have started if I were President, over with!” — Trump, in a social media post Trump started with threatening new tariffs on Russia. Sanctions on Russia significantly reduced trade with the United States — from $36 billion in 2021 to $3.5 billion in 2024 — but Russia was never much of a trading partner. U.S. trade with Canada is $3.6 billion a day. Moreover, when Trump announced on April 2 “reciprocal” tariffs on imports from 185 countries, he somehow left Russia off the list. Feb. 14 “I don’t see any way that a country in Russia’s position could allow them, just in their position, could allow them to join NATO. I don’t see that happening.” — remarks to reporters Since 2008, under the George W. Bush administration, the official U.S. position is that Ukraine eventually will become a member of NATO. Foreign-policy experts have long argued over whether this was ever realistic — or unnecessarily provocative to Russia. But Ukraine’s possible membership in NATO — or not — was a significant bargaining chip that was held back for peace talks. Here, Trump gave it away without getting anything in return. Feb. 18 “I hear that they’re upset about not having a seat. Well, they’ve had a seat for three years and a long time before that. This could have been settled very easily, just a half-baked negotiator could have settled this years ago without … the loss of much land, very little land, without the loss of any lives.” — remarks to reporters U.S. and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia without Ukrainian officials present, the first meeting between the two superpowers in three years. When Kyiv complained, Trump suggested Russia was pushed into the conflict. Once again, he claimed a peace deal could be reached easily by any “half-baked negotiator.” Feb. 28 “We had a very meaningful meeting in the White House today. Much was learned that could never be understood without conversation under such fire and pressure. It’s amazing what comes out through emotion, and I have determined that President Zelenskyy is not ready for Peace if America is involved, because he feels our involvement gives him a big advantage in negotiations. I don’t want advantage, I want PEACE. He disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for Peace.” — Trump, social media post Zelensky arrived at the White House to sign a deal that would use Ukraine’s mineral reserves to help pay for more military aid. But the meeting quickly went off the rails in front of reporters, and Trump disinvited Zelensky and his delegation from lunch. The agreement was not signed at the time. “You don’t have the cards right now,” Trump told Zelensky. “With us, you start having cards.” “I’m not playing cards,” Zelensky replied. “I’m very serious, Mr. President.” March 11 After U.S.-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia, Zelensky said he had accepted a 30-day ceasefire proposed by the United States, covering the entire front line of the fighting with Russia. “Ukraine accepts this proposal, we consider it positive, we are ready to take such a step, and the United States of America must convince Russia to do so,” he said. March 16 “Well, I was being a little bit sarcastic when I said that; what I really mean is I’d like to get it settled and I think I’ll be successful.” — remarks to Sharyl Attkisson of Sinclair Broadcast Group Trump rolled back his 24-hour comment by saying he was just being sarcastic. Attkisson asks: “What’s the plan if Putin doesn’t agree to a ceasefire?” Trump replies: “Bad news for this world because so many people are dying. But I think, I think he’s going to agree. I really do. I think I know him pretty well and I think he’s going to agree.” March 18 “My phone conversation today with President Putin of Russia was a very good and productive one. We agreed to an immediate Ceasefire on all Energy and Infrastructure, with an understanding that we will be working quickly to have a Complete Ceasefire and, ultimately, an END to this very horrible War between Russia and Ukraine.” — post on social media Trump was overoptimistic. In a phone call with Trump, Putin rejected the 30-day ceasefire accepted by Ukraine. Instead, he agreed to only a 30-day halt to attacks on energy infrastructure. Trump pitched it as a win that will soon lead to a “complete ceasefire.” March 30 “You could say that I was very angry, pissed off, when … Putin started getting into Zelensky’s credibility, because that’s not going in the right location … New leadership means you’re not going to have a deal for a long time.” — remarks to NBC News Trump reacts negatively to Putin’s suggestion that Zelensky needed to be replaced before talks start in earnest. “If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault — which it might not be — but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,” he said. It was an empty threat. Biden had already banned oil imports from Russia, so less than 10,000 barrels were imported in 2023. April 17 Special envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Ukraine negotiator, met with European and Ukrainian officials and floated a proposal to recognize Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and freeze the war’s front lines as part of a peace agreement, in exchange for an eventual lifting of sanctions. April 20 “HOPEFULLY RUSSIA AMD UKRAINE WILL MAKE A DEAL THIS WEEK. BOTH WILL THEN START TO DO BIG BUSINESS WITH THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, WHICH IS THRIVING, AND MAKE A FORTUNE!” — in a social media post Trump again expressed hope for a quick resolution to the conflict. Then on the last day of April, Ukraine and the United States formally signed a minerals deal, creating the United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund. Ukraine will contribute 50 percent of revenue from the exploitation of new minerals, and oil and gas projects, and future U.S. military assistance to Ukraine in the form of ammunition, weapons systems or training would be considered a capital contribution to the fund. April 26 “This is Sleepy Joe Biden’s War, not mine. It was a loser from day one, and should have never happened, and wouldn’t have happened if I were President at the time. I’m just trying to clean up the mess that was left to me by Obama and Biden, and what a mess it is. With all of that being said, there was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days. It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions?’ Too many people are dying!!!” — Trump, in a social media post, after meeting with Zelensky in the Vatican Trump again showed irritation at Putin for continuing deadly attacks into Ukraine while bemoaning the “mess” he inherited. April 27 “I want him to stop shooting, sit down and make a deal.” — remarks to reporters Trump made his comments after Russia launched a sweeping drone assault and airstrikes across Ukraine. May 8 “I think we’re in a good position to settle. They want to settle, Ukraine wants to settle. … As you know, President Putin has just announced a three-day ceasefire, which doesn’t sound like much, but it’s a lot if you knew where we started from.” — remarks to reporters Trump pointed to a unilateral three-day ceasefire announced by Putin as a sign of progress. Ukraine said Russia never observed it and continued to shell residential areas; Russia claims Ukraine broke the ceasefire. May 16 Russia and Ukraine hold their first direct peace talks in Istanbul. But Putin sends only a low-level delegation, and talks end after just two hours, with an agreement on a large prisoner exchange. Russia rejects Ukraine’s proposal for a temporary ceasefire. Vladimir Medinsky, head of the Russian delegation, notes that Sweden and Russia waged a 21-year war three centuries ago. “Russia is ready to wage war forever,” he tells the Ukrainians. May 19 “It’s very big egos involved. I tell you, big egos involved. But I think something’s going to happen. And if it doesn’t, I’d just back away and they’re going to have to keep going. Again, this was a European situation. It should have remained a European situation. … I said, when are we going to end this, Vladimir? I know him for a long time now. I said when are we going to end this bloodshed, this bloodbath, it’s a bloodbath, and I do believe he wants to end it.” — remarks to reporters Trump speaks to Putin for two hours and, in his Truth Social post, said Putin agreed to start negotiations toward a ceasefire — a far cry from ending the war. In many ways, this is the best outcome for Putin. Russia has learned to live with Western sanctions, and it can continue fighting against a much smaller foe. In an official Russian readout of the phone call, Putin called for eliminating the “root causes” of the conflict — code for a replacement of the current Ukrainian government and a neutering of its military — in effect ensuring Ukraine becomes a client state. As conditions for a ceasefire, Putin first wants Ukraine to withdraw completely from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions — areas that Russia now only partially controls. That’s conceding more land than even the proposal floated by Witkoff in April. “It’s our land, we won’t withdraw our troops from our territory,” Zelensky said. The Pinocchio Test When we questioned the White House about Trump’s evolution on how easy it was to end the war, we received a statement from National Security Council spokesperson Kylie Newbold: “This is a war we inherited — it is Biden’s war. There was no plan or strategy to bring the conflict and killing to an end, but now under President Trump the two sides are agreeing to the first direct talks in three years. This is an important step forward.” But the record shows that, over and over, Trump expressed optimism that Putin will soon agree to a deal — and then the Russian leader fails to follow through. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire, which Putin rejected. At best, Trump can claim he finally got Putin to agree to talk about the conditions for a ceasefire. But Putin’s conditions would dismember Ukraine and give Russia territory it has failed to win in three years of conflict. The two sides supposedly will begin negotiating, but ordinarily in diplomacy such talks only begin when both sides have shown a commitment to reaching an agreement. A prisoner exchange is hardly a baby step to engender confidence. Putin’s price for a ceasefire is for Ukraine to give up land it now controls. It’s hard to see how these talks would be productive. And if the talks fail, Trump appears ready to wash his hands of the conflict and let the war continue. Trump has never admitted that his frequent pledge of ending the war in 24 hours was unrealistic. His excuse is that he was being sarcastic. He earns an Upside-down Pinocchio, for an unacknowledged flip-flop.